Indian equity markets should be able to withstand inflation up to 8 per cent, said analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management in a recent note. Should the rate of inflation move higher than this, the valuation of Indian equities could deteriorate further, they cautioned. The fall from the peak levels has seen Nifty's 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.6 dip toward its 10-year and 5-year (pre-COVID) average of 16.9, which suggests that valuation froth of Indian equities has settled, said the Credit Suisse analysts.
The Tata Tech IPO will be the first from the Tata group since TCS listed its shares in 2004.
As the Indian currency hovers around its lowest versus the US greenback, several smaller and mid-sized companies are expected to face rough weather as almost 44 per cent of the foreign loans taken by Indian companies remained unhedged. According to the data sourced from the Reserve Bank of India, Indian companies raised around $38.2 billion in the financial year ended in March. Of this, only 56 per cent of the loans are hedged while the rest of the foreign loans remain unhedged, thus risking the companies to forex volatility.
'I would not suggest buying these stocks in the dip, as the upside in profit is dented without a safety net for a rainy day.'
Institutional shareholders of Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) are expecting big-ticket announcements from the company, including timeline for listing of its telecom and retail subsidiaries. They expect this to unlock value in the company, which has seen a sharp fall in market valuation on Friday. This is due to windfall tax imposed by the Centre on refiners and oil producers.
American retail major Walgreens Boots Alliance on Tuesday said it would retain its pharma retail business - Boots UK - thus abandoning the entire sale process. The company did not make any comment specifically on the offer made by Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries (RIL), which had made a bid for the company last month. "As a result of market instability severely impacting financing availability, no third party has been able to make an offer that adequately reflects the high potential value of Boots and No7 Beauty Company.
'Recent underperformance notwithstanding, equities should constitute a major part of investors' financial portfolio.'
In one of the biggest donations by a business family in India, the family of Adani Group chairman Gautam Adani on Thursday committed to donating Rs 60,000 crore (around $7.7 billion) to various charities related to health care, education, and skill development. The commitment has been made to mark Gautam Adani's 60th birthday on Friday as well as the birth centenary year of his father Shantilal Adani. The corpus will be administered by the Adani Foundation. "At a very fundamental level, [programmes] related to all these three areas should be seen holistically and they collectively form the drivers to build an equitable and future-ready India.
BofA Securities has revised its year-end Nifty target from its earlier projection of 16,000 to 14,500 now - down over 6 per cent from the current levels. Fast tightening monetary conditions, slowing growth/fears of US recession and the likely Nifty EPS (earnings per share) cuts, BofA Securities said, are the key headwinds for the markets in the near-term. However, clarity on macro and monetary policy outlook in the US/India, it said, is the silver lining that could see markets bottom out by August/September 2022.
'There will be a series of rate hikes, but the pace and quantum will depend on how the economy in the US and the rest of the world behave.'
After a sharp correction over the last few months, analysts seem to be turning cautiously optimistic on the information technology (IT) sector and suggest there could be trading opportunities in select counters despite revenue and growth concerns that still plague the sector. "IT stocks valuations have corrected 17 per cent-49 per cent and stock prices have corrected 9 - 42 per cent since mid-December 2021. Nifty IT index valuation has corrected by 27 per cent and price by 21 per cent. "About two quarters ago, we made a case that valuation drivers have peaked.
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
JP Morgan has downgraded the Indian information technology sector to 'underweight' as it believes the heydays of the sector are over. Rising margin headwinds in the near-term and the revenue headwinds in the medium-term from a potential macro slowdown, Ankur Rudra and Bhavik Mehta of JP Morgan said in the report, will mean that the sector's earnings upgrade cycle is behind. "We see peak revenue growth behind us and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins trending down from inflation, mean revision.
The sharp correction in equity markets has taken a toll on mid-and-small cap stocks that have underperformed their large-cap peers. Thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), the mid-and-small cap indexes on the BSE have slipped over 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, as compared to a fall of around 6 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. While investors dumped mid-and small-cap stocks as the markets remained choppy over the past few weeks, analysts still expect these two segments to see good investor interest from a medium-to-long term perspective.
Billionaire Gautam Adani on Sunday won the race to acquire Swiss cement major Holcim's stake in Ambuja Cements and its subsidiary ACC for $10.5 bn (around Rs 81,361 crore), including the open offers. The Adani family, through an offshore special-purpose vehicle, announced that it had entered into definitive agreements for the acquisition of Holcim Ltd's entire stake in two of India's leading cement companies -- Ambuja Cements and ACC -- the Adani group said in a statement. The group outbid Ultratech and JSW group to enter the cement industry and also emerge as the country's second-largest cement manufacturer, with 70 million tonnes of capacity annually.
India's largest cement firm, Ultratech Cement, has joined the race to acquire the Holcim stake in Ambuja Cements and its subsidiary, ACC. UltraTech - part of the Aditya Birla Group - submitted a non-binding bid on Wednesday. Swiss multinational Holcim, which manufactures building material, is exiting India by selling its 63.19% stake in Ambuja Cements. According to banking sources, UltraTech has submitted a plan to Holcim, outlining divestiture details that would meet the norms set by anti-trust body Competition Commission of India.
The chairman of the JSW Group of companies, Sajjan Jindal, whose stake in the group is valued at $14.5 billion (Rs 1.1 trillion), is betting $4.5 billion of his personal fortune in the firm's bid for Ambuja Cements. According to bankers, Jindal's contribution will be a combination of share sale and debts raised by pledging the stake of the target entities with private equities. The JSW Group chairman has offered $7 billion for Ambuja Cements, including $2.5 billion of investments from private equities, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
The Indian lenders are worried over the fast depleting asset base of the Future group companies which would make their recovery of dues difficult. The asset base of Future group has eroded in the last two years due to lockdown and takeover of 947 stores by rival Reliance Retail after Future group's lease on the properties expired. Bankers said they have approached bankruptcy court so as to avoid any duplication of legal action and reduce time at the legal forums.
Air India, under its new Tata management, has taken a Rs 60,800 crore ($8 billion) cover by paying Rs 266 crore premium to a clutch of insurance companies, including Tata AIG General Insurance. The airline managed to get a better deal as it valued its fleet lower by almost $2 billion. The new management held extensive negotiations - both in India and London, to get a good deal considering the rising premiums due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
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